⏱ 2 min read
Two-day net inflows of $1.7B coincided with BTC trading above James Seyffart’s $81,722 estimated ETF holder cost basis, while Tuesday’s flows were dominated by BlackRock, Fidelity and Grayscale Mini.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded more than $1.7 billion in net inflows across two sessions as Bitcoin traded above the estimated cost basis of the average ETF investor.
According to SoSoValue, net inflows totaled $999 million on Monday and $715 million on Tuesday. Total net assets across the US spot Bitcoin ETFs stood around $111 billion on Tuesday, up 56% from their 2026 low of roughly $71 billion on June 30, yet about 13% below the 2026 high of $128 billion recorded on Jan. 14.
Issuer-level data from Farside Investors show Tuesday’s flows were concentrated: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took in $350 million, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) $257 million, and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust $99 million. By calculation, those three captured approximately 99% of the day’s $715 million net inflow (IBIT ~49%, FBTC ~36%, Grayscale Mini ~14%).
The key signal
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart said the average Bitcoin ETF holder was back above water for the first time since January as BTC moved above his estimated ETF holder cost basis of $81,722 per coin. CoinGecko data show Bitcoin traded around $86,000 on Tuesday and briefly topped $87,000 on Wednesday.
▼ 0.68%
Why it matters
In the ETF structure, primary-market creations require authorized participants to deliver or source the underlying asset, so sustained net creations translate into persistent buy demand for Bitcoin through the fund channel. Crossing back above the estimated holder cost basis may reduce loss-driven redemption pressure and can encourage incremental allocations—though it could also prompt some profit-taking. The concentration of flows suggests the marginal demand impulse remains dominated by a few large issuers.
Limitations
The SoSoValue figures provide total net flows but not the split between gross creations and redemptions, nor Monday’s issuer breakdown. Seyffart’s $81,722 cost basis is an estimate; the methodology is not supplied here. AUM changes reflect both flows and price.
What to watch next
– Whether net creations persist over the next several sessions while BTC trades above the $81,722 estimate.
– Any shift in issuer concentration, particularly outside IBIT/FBTC/Grayscale Mini.
– Progress of AUM toward the January high of $128 billion, which would indicate whether new money plus price gains are rebuilding aggregate exposure.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
James Seyffart’s $81,722 estimated ETF holder cost basis remains a key level, with two strong sessions of net creations occurring while BTC traded above it. Tuesday’s flows were nearly all concentrated in BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale Mini. Sustained trading above this cost basis tends to support ongoing creations, whereas a move below it could quickly reverse flows, particularly if concentrated issuers face redemptions. Monitoring net creations and issuer concentration in the coming sessions will be important for confirmation.
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