⏱ 3 min read
Glassnode sees about 4M BTC bought between $85k–$118k and now at a loss—roughly $326B at $81.4k—setting up possible breakeven selling near $85k.
About 4 million BTC that long-term holders bought between $85,000 and $118,000 are now under water, and bitcoin bought above $85k could meet breakeven supply if price revisits that range, according to a Glassnode note published Wednesday. The firm said a band around $84,000–$85,000 has repelled Bitcoin four times this year and counted only five daily closes above it since January.
Breakeven supply sits near $85k
Glassnode defines long-term holders as wallets that have kept coins for more than 155 days, and said most of this cohort’s high-cost block was accumulated in 2025. It added that more than half of all long-term holder coins were purchased above the current spot.
The cohort’s size and location line up with ETF positioning around spot. Glassnode put the average entry for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs near $81,500, while Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart estimated it at just under $82,000 in a Wednesday post. That leaves both groups close to flat around current prices, a setup that can throttle rallies until fresh demand emerges.
The report put Bitcoin near $81,400, up 1.2% over 24 hours and roughly 35% below its $126,080 all-time high. Glassnode said Bitcoin last cleared the $85,000 area in September, topping out near $87,100, and has not held above that level for more than three straight sessions this year.
▲ 0.88%
Prices as of 2026-10-29 17:02 UTC. Source: CoinGecko.
Macro and flows point to a range
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday in a 10–2 vote after traders had priced high odds of a December hike. “What truly constrains Bitcoin’s performance,” HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun told the report, “is the persistently high U.S. Treasury yields and real interest rates, which are significantly raising the opportunity cost for investors holding risk assets.” CNBC showed the 10‑year yield just under 5% at midday Thursday, down from 5.05% at Wednesday’s close and a 52‑week peak of 5.37% on October 7.
Sun said lower funding rates have squeezed returns on the cash‑and‑carry trade that pairs spot BTC with short perpetual futures. As that trade waned, Galaxy Research found nine hedge funds and banks cut 68,000 BTC worth of spot ETF exposure, while wealth platforms and sovereign funds added.
ETF flows have steadied. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $424 million from Monday to Wednesday, per SoSoValue, after $635 million exited on October 22. Seyffart estimated ETFs’ average unrealized loss at about $2.63 billion as of Monday, noting his figure tracks only primary flows, not what secondary‑market buyers paid.
Glassnode and Sun both pointed to limited forced selling. Glassnode said realized losses have shrunk with each dip since August, from roughly $630 million on the worst August day to about $27 million around the October 24 pullback. “The core issue facing the market right now is not panic selling, but rather insufficient new buying interest to support a sustained recovery,” Sun said.
On the downside, Glassnode flagged roughly $42 million of bids between $78,000 and $79,000 on Binance and an average cost basis for newer buyers at $75,800. Sun expects trading between $75,000 and $85,000 in the short term and said whether supply near $85,000 is absorbed will be an important signal for market strength.
Source: Decrypt.
This article was written with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
While long-term holders control vastly more Bitcoin by value than ETFs have in unrealized losses, the relatively small size of ETF losses suggests that these funds alone are unlikely to drive major market shifts. Instead, sustained price movement may depend more on whether new buying interest can absorb supply near key resistance levels, such as around $85,000. The interaction between ETF flows, long-term holder behavior, and fresh demand will likely determine if the market breaks out of its current trading range.
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