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Nine firms cut 68,000 BTC while 13F holdings fell 48,000 BTC, leaving other filers to add about 20,000 BTC, Galaxy’s report says.
A Galaxy Research report published Monday says fast-money bitcoin etf sellers exited U.S. spot funds as the cash-and-carry edge narrowed, while wealth platforms and sovereign investors were net buyers.
SEC 13F filers held 355,000 BTC worth of spot ETF shares at the end of September 2025, the report said. By June 2026, that was 307,000 BTC, a 14% drop. Galaxy attributes more than all of that decline to nine firms—Millennium Management, Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Capula Management, Farallon Capital, D.E. Shaw, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, Symmetry Investments and Tudor Investment—which together cut 68,000 BTC of exposure, trimmed positions by 29% to 100%, and, at today’s prices, about $5.4 billion. Against a 48,000 BTC net decline, those nine accounted for roughly 1.4 times the drop.
That implies other roughly 2,200 filers added about 20,000 BTC, valued near $1.6 billion, the report said. Buyers included Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council. Outside the 13F universe, advisers, family offices and individuals pared holdings by 6.6% while Bitcoin’s price fell 49%, the report said.
Carry trade’s edge evaporated
Galaxy’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said the sellers were largely running cash-and-carry trades: long spot ETF shares while short CME Bitcoin futures to capture the futures basis. The front-month basis averaged 7.9% annualized in the 30 days before Bitcoin’s peak, or 3.9 percentage points over three-month Treasury bills; in the 30 days to Oct. 21 it averaged 4.8%, just 0.6 points over bills. After fees, rolls and margin, Galaxy estimates the trade now earns about 1.5 points over cash. “That arithmetic, not the price, is why the multi-strategy desks left,” Thorn wrote.
CFTC data on CME Bitcoin futures is consistent with that view. Asset managers’ net long position fell from 43,300 BTC around the all-time high to 18,400 BTC, a 57% drop, while leveraged funds’ net short shrank by the same proportion, from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC. Open interest declined 28% in BTC terms and 51% in dollar terms. Further out, November and December futures priced at 6.3%–6.5% at the Oct. 21 close, or about 2 points over bills before costs, which Thorn argued does not compensate for tail risk; he noted the basis inverted to negative 31% annualized in December 2022.
▼ 0.06%
Prices as of 2026-10-28 17:03 UTC. Source: CoinGecko.
Directional buyers and choppy flows
Overall spot ETF holdings fell 11% from their October 2025 peak to their July trough while Bitcoin fell 53%, Galaxy said. Since the June low, spot funds have added 87,000 BTC, which Galaxy characterizes as directional buying rather than carry-driven demand.
Recent flows have been uneven, the report said: nearly $1 billion in outflows over two weeks earlier this month, followed by the best day in nearly a month on Oct. 19 when BlackRock’s IBIT did all the buying. A three-day, $1 billion inflow run then gave way to heavy outflows. The report added that BTF ETF flows turned positive again this week, though smaller, at roughly $286 million so far.
The 13F data runs only through June, so it does not capture more recent position changes. Galaxy discloses that it holds Bitcoin.
Source: Decrypt.
This article was written with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
The recent decrease in carry premium may signal increased price volatility ahead, as shifts in ETF flows and futures positioning reflect changing trader sentiment. If this trend continues, the market could see more pronounced swings driven by fewer arbitrage opportunities, potentially impacting both directional buyers and fast-money participants. Understanding the carry premium’s movement alongside fund flows offers a clearer view of how liquidity and risk appetite might evolve in the near term.
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