⏱ 2 min read
Max pain sits at $78,000 with Bitcoin near $81,500; 86% of contracts are out of the money.
About $11 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Deribit on Friday, a bitcoin options expiry the report says covers roughly 135,000 BTC, with Bitcoin trading near $81,500.
The report says roughly 86% of contracts are out of the money. It adds that settling at today’s level would move about $130 million, around 1% of the notional figure. Even so, options dealers often hedge their exposure by buying or selling spot or futures as prices approach key strikes, so hedging flows can add to intraday swings without any new headline.
Dealer hedging can magnify moves
Deribit’s open interest puts max pain, the level where sellers pay out the least, at $78,000, according to the report. From the stated spot to that level is about 4.3% lower ($81,500 against $78,000). The report also notes that max pain describes positioning and does not predict where Bitcoin will settle.
▼ 3.07%
Prices as of 2026-10-29 21:02 UTC. Source: CoinGecko.
Positioning skews to calls, max pain below spot
Friday’s batch covers about 88,700 call options and 46,500 puts, per Deribit’s data cited in the report. Set against each other, 88,700 against 46,500 is roughly 1.9 times, consistent with the put-to-call ratio of 0.52 the report cites. The heaviest call strikes sit at $95,000 and $100,000, while the largest put cluster is at $70,000. The report says Friday’s expiry also drew the most trading among expiries over the past 24 hours on Deribit, with more than 6,000 contracts changing hands.
The expiring notional equals about a third of all Bitcoin options open interest on the exchange and is roughly 70% larger than the $6.4 billion that expired in August, the report says.
Macro is in the mix. The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with two officials favoring a hike, and the report says the 10‑year Treasury yield closed at 5.05%. It adds that expectations are rising for another hike this year.
The next dated test the report flags is December 25, when about 135,500 BTC in options are already set to expire, roughly the same size as Friday’s and about two weeks after the Fed’s December 8–9 meeting.
Source: Decrypt.
This article was written with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
Large notional meets small expected settlement. Most contracts would lapse worthless at current prices, yet dealer hedging can still drive intraday volatility around strikes. The report puts max pain below spot and notes calls dominate open interest, but it does not show who holds the risk or how dealers are positioned. Without that, the data flags a busy expiry day rather than a directional signal.
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