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Prices as of 2026-10-08 15:02 UTC. Source: CoinGecko.
BTC traded $64 cheaper on Coinbase than Binance as US-session losses concentrated into two sharp days, while ETF flows offered mixed signals.
Bitcoin’s US-session weakness has deepened as the Coinbase discount widened to $64 versus Binance, the report says, citing CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Gap at -$64. The data imply softer pricing on a venue closely tied to US traders.
Across 13 Wall Street cash sessions from Sept. 21 through Oct. 7, Bitcoin fell during eight, according to the report’s analysis of Binance’s BTC/USDT trading. The largest drops were Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, at 1.86% and 2.65%. The gap between the headline compounded loss during US hours (-3.24%) and the gain after removing those two dates (+1.28%) is 4.52 percentage points, roughly equal to the two declines combined (4.51 points). That concentration suggests most of the period’s damage came from two sharp moves rather than steady selling each day.
Outside US stock-market hours, prices advanced 6.07% over the same period, the report’s analysis shows.
The result also depends on where the clock starts. Defining the session as 9 a.m.–4 p.m. New York produces a compounded 4.94% loss; a 10 a.m.–4 p.m. window shows a 5.41% decline. After excluding Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, those alternative windows still show losses of 0.16% and 1.68%, leaving the positive 1.28% remainder dependent on the exact 9:30 a.m. boundary.
Coinbase prints point to a similar pattern over the same dates: about a 4.85% decline from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. and 5.36% from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., the report says. Agreement across Binance (USDT-quoted) and Coinbase (USD-quoted) strengthens the timing signal while leaving the seller’s identity unresolved.
Glassnode said this week that Bitcoin’s net gains since Sept. 21 have largely come outside the US session, reversing an earlier stretch when American trading hours contributed more strongly to the advance.
ETF flows and in-kind mechanics cloud seller identity
Fund flows complicate a simple institutional-selling story. The report notes net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Sept. 30, aligning with the first major US-session drop. Two days later, the funds recorded net inflows even as Bitcoin fell during Wall Street hours. Outflows then became more pronounced on Oct. 7. That divergence indicates ETF investors alone do not explain the session weakness.
The report also notes that since regulators allowed in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETFs in 2025, withdrawals can transfer Bitcoin rather than trigger an immediate cash sale. Daily ETF totals therefore do not reveal when underlying coins were sold or which investors drove intraday declines.
The next several sessions will test whether the pattern persists. A continued loss profile during US hours alongside a deeply negative exchange premium and building ETF outflows would argue for a sustained deterioration in US demand. A rebound in US-session returns without a matching pickup in ETF flows would point elsewhere, such as market makers, derivatives positioning or other participants active during the American day.
Source: CryptoSlate.
This article was written with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
The ability of ETFs to create and redeem shares in-kind complicates interpreting intraday Bitcoin price moves based on ETF flow data alone. Since these transactions can transfer Bitcoin without immediate sales, net ETF outflows or inflows during US sessions may not correspond directly to actual selling pressure in the spot market. This dynamic means that identifying the true sellers during price drops requires considering other factors, like market makers or derivatives positioning, beyond just ETF flow statistics.
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