⏱ 3 min read
A 25 bp move to 3.75%-4% landed on a 12-0 vote, long-end yields eased, and Bitcoin stayed near $76,300 while Zcash popped 23% after Matt Huang’s disclosure.
Bitcoin steadied near $76,300 after the Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on a 12-0 vote, while Zcash surged as much as 23% toward $1,425 following a disclosure from Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang.
The 25 bp Fed Hike
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, a move backed unanimously by the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee. It was the first hike since July 2023 and came after traders had priced a 93% probability of the decision, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Higher rates make Treasurys and cash more attractive relative to non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, and a hawkish hike tends to strengthen the dollar — a double headwind for risk assets. Wall Street reacted more than crypto: the Dow fell about 1.2% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% to 0.5% as the 10-year Treasury yield had topped 5% earlier in the week and oil pushed above $100 a barrel amid the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Crypto’s tape was calmer. Bitcoin briefly touched $76,499 after the announcement before settling near $76,300, roughly flat on the day. The broader crypto market held above $2.6 trillion and later stood at $2.63 trillion, while the Crypto Fear and Greed Index printed 50 — exactly neutral — after “extreme greed” readings just three weeks ago. That sentiment reset, alongside pre-positioned expectations at 93% odds, helps explain the lack of a directional impulse despite a policy tightening that, in theory, should pressure risk assets via a stronger dollar and higher real carry.
▲ 1.38%
Bitcoin Near $76,300
By Thursday morning, the immediate macro headwinds moderated: long-end Treasury yields dropped roughly two basis points and equity futures turned higher after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s inflation-fighting message reassured bond markets that no disorderly yield spike was coming, while oil retreated slightly from its highs. Those shifts help rationalize Bitcoin’s stability near $76,300 despite the textbook “higher rates, stronger dollar” drag. In other words, the market absorbed the hike largely as telegraphed, with positioning and macro relief blunting the typical risk-off impulse.
First-order, that leaves Bitcoin balancing carry competition from cash and Treasurys against a macro backdrop that cooled just enough to prevent forced de-risking. Second-order, the neutral Fear and Greed reading at 50 suggests less unstable positioning than during “extreme greed,” reducing the probability of chase-driven volatility. If the easing in yields and a modest pullback in oil persist, the double headwind cited for risk assets would lighten, allowing price discovery to focus on crypto-native flows rather than macro shocks.
Zcash’s 23% Surge
- A sustained bid near $1,425 would confirm ZEC’s reaction to Paradigm’s disclosure.
- Reversal below prior highs despite 23% pop would flag event-driven exhaustion risk.
- Monitoring liquidity after the X disclosure gauges durability beyond the initial impulse.
- Any detail about Zcash Open Development Lab funding could extend the dispersion.
Three Metrics To Track
Three data points steer near-term direction. First, whether Bitcoin retests and clears $76,499 or slips from $76,300; those levels framed the immediate post-hike range. Second, if long-end Treasury yields continue easing after their earlier 5% peak, easing the carry and dollar headwinds that higher rates introduce. Third, oil’s retreat from above $100: sustained relief lowers inflation anxiety and reduces the risk of another disorderly rates move. Layer on sentiment — a Fear and Greed print at 50 — and the path of least resistance looks like range preservation unless a clean level break, a renewed yield spike, or fresh idiosyncratic catalysts like the Zcash disclosure shift the balance.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
If Bitcoin were to decline sharply despite stable or declining long-end Treasury yields and oil prices remaining elevated above $100, then this read is wrong because it would indicate that risk appetite is actually more sensitive to the policy environment than suggested, undermining the narrative that price action is choosing risk notwithstanding the interest rate and yield backdrop. Such a move would invalidate the assumption that idiosyncratic catalysts can sustain crypto prices regardless of the macro policy headwinds, proving instead that broader structural factors dominate.
A comparable precedent occurred in early 2018, when despite idiosyncratic positive developments in select crypto projects, Bitcoin and the wider market suffered sustained downturns triggered by tightening regulatory scrutiny and rising yields. This episode illustrates that even strong individual asset performances may fail to insulate crypto from macro shocks, highlighting the risk that rotation within crypto markets might not prevent broader capital outflows when systemic pressures intensify.
Daily crypto intelligence. Before the market opens.
Including the Divergence Index — the sentiment gap no other newsletter tracks. Free, every morning at 7:30am ET.
✓ Free forever · ✓ No spam · ✓ 50+ sources monitored
