⏱ 2 min read
Breadth is stretched and mostly spot-led, Glassnode and Wintermute say, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs provided a large but decelerating bid.
Altcoin activity has surged against Bitcoin. Glassnode reports altcoin spot volume is now nearly four times Bitcoin’s — the widest ratio since September 2025 — and says 72.5% of the assets it tracks outperformed BTC through September 23, up from 39% during August’s squeeze.
The latest leg appears spot-led rather than leverage-driven. Glassnode notes altcoin perpetual open interest barely expanded over the last 30 days and fewer than half of tracked markets added positions. Its report characterizes the rotation’s breadth as a historical warning condition that has often coincided with local Bitcoin tops.
Desk flow echoes the shift. Wintermute’s September 28 OTC report says its desk saw net BTC selling last week, driven mainly by retail clients taking profits and rotating into altcoins. The firm describes Bitcoin as the funding asset for that move.
Who’s on the other side
US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed a large amount of supply over the same stretch. Farside Investors’ data shows $999 million of creations on September 21, then $714.7 million, $346.9 million, $190.7 million and $134.5 million on September 25 — roughly $2.4 billion in five sessions, averaging about $477 million a day. Glassnode’s rolling weekly reading is near $2.7 billion, which it calls the largest inflow in almost a year. Each day’s inflow, however, was smaller than the last; September 25’s tally was 86.5% below September 21’s.
Under the surface, Glassnode’s September 28 report shows Bitcoin spot cumulative volume delta fell 86.5% to $17.3 million, perpetual futures delta was negative $261.5 million, and futures open interest held around $38.9 billion. The share of supply in profit rose to 74% from 69.3% a week earlier, and the realized profit-to-loss ratio jumped 79.6% to 1.4.
Why it matters
Rotation typically runs on a simple loop: Bitcoin gains create wealth, traders realize some of it and move outward into higher-beta tokens; the process can coexist with a higher BTC price as long as another buyer absorbs the coins being sold. Glassnode’s breadth and volume ratios suggest this rotation is wide and mostly spot-driven. Wintermute and Glassnode both warn that similar episodes have often been followed by flat-to-negative weeks, with early-cycle periods as the main exception.
What to watch next
- The pace of US spot Bitcoin ETF creations after September 25 — steady or re-accelerating flows would point to a still-present absorber; continued deceleration would reduce that cushion.
- Breadth metrics from Glassnode (alt/BTC spot volume ratio and percent of alts outperforming) for signs of exhaustion or extension.
- Positioning: whether alt perp open interest begins to expand broadly, which would signal a shift from spot-led rotation toward leveraged participation.
- Profit-taking gauges such as share of BTC supply in profit and realized P/L ratios for signs that available supply to sell is growing or being worked through.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
Sustained rotation depends not just on ETF inflows but on maintaining a balance where incoming demand consistently matches or exceeds coins being sold to fund alt positions. As breadth metrics approach stretched levels, a key early warning is a growing share of BTC supply slipping out of profit or declines in realized P/L ratios, indicating rising selling pressure. Monitoring whether alt perpetual open interest expands broadly is also crucial, as a shift toward leveraged participation could amplify volatility and test the resilience of ETF absorption beyond just creation pace.
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