⏱ 2 min read
CME probabilities tilt to a December hike as BTC sits near $82,000 and the Coinbase Premium turns negative while Asian equities bounce.
Bitcoin opens week near $82,000 as equities recover and rate bets coalesce around a December move. The report says some analysts expect a retest of $80,000; at $82,000 that leaves a $2,000 cushion above the cited level. It also notes Bitcoin’s weekly close slipped below local support after the Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.14, its lowest since late June.
Equities began the week firmer. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index gained nearly 1.8% Monday after last week’s tech-driven selloff. The report says the index fell 2.8% on Oct. 12 and touched a low of 5,455 on Thursday, taking week-to-date losses temporarily to 17%, before the rebound. The S&P 500 finished Friday down 2% for the week, while futures were 0.7% higher at the time of writing. Around 15% of S&P 500 companies are due to report third-quarter earnings, with SpaceX on Tuesday and Tesla and Meta on Wednesday, according to the report.
December rate hike odds dominate
Policy expectations cluster around a pause in October and a hike in December. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 85% odds of holding the current 3.75–4.00% target range in October. For December, the tool shows 75% odds of a 25-basis-point hike and 13% odds of a 50-basis-point move, implying 88% odds of some increase. The report also says markets have priced out two further hikes in 2026, seeing 75% odds of only one 25-basis-point hike by year-end.
In a discussion with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Fed chair Kevin Warsh said, “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year.” The report says markets read the absence of guidance as dovish, while Mosaic Asset Company argued that inflation trends keep the bias toward tighter policy.
▲ 1.30%
Prices as of 2026-10-19 21:02 UTC. Source: CoinGecko.
Energy-led inflation complicates the picture
Last week’s US Producer Price Index rose 1.7% month on month, the largest increase since March 2022, and the report links the move to higher fuel costs. “Half of the September increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which jumped 20.3%,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Consumer prices also came in hotter, with CPI at 3.7% year on year, 0.1 percentage point above expectations, according to the report.
For Bitcoin holders, the setup is split: stocks are bouncing into earnings, but BTC’s weekly close slipped under nearby support and the Coinbase premium turned negative. The Fed’s next decision is due on Oct. 28, and earnings later this week will show whether the rebound broadens beyond mega-cap tech.
Source: Cointelegraph.
This article was written with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
Rising fuel costs are driving inflation higher, which may pressure Federal Reserve policy and introduce volatility across markets. While stocks show signs of recovery ahead of earnings, Bitcoin’s weakening technical signals and a negative Coinbase premium suggest increased uncertainty for crypto investors amid this inflationary backdrop. The next Fed meeting could be pivotal in shaping both equity and cryptocurrency trends going forward.
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