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Prices as of 2026-10-05 00:06 UTC. Source: CoinGecko.
October inflows of $134.4M haven’t fully offset Sept. 30’s $148.7M outflow; softer jobs data cut October hike odds to 14% from 70%.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $102.7 million on Thursday and another $31.7 million on Friday, totaling $134.4 million in net inflows to start October, according to Decrypt‘s Bitcoin ETF tracker.
That green start followed a red finish: the funds shed $148.7 million on Sept. 30, ending a nine-session inflow streak that began Sept. 17, Decrypt reported. Set against that prior outflow, $134.4 million of early-October inflows still leave roughly $14.3 million to make up.
September was the ETFs’ second-best month since October 2025 with $2.65 billion in net inflows, according to SoSoValue data cited by Decrypt. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $58.1 billion and total net assets at $101.1 billion, per Decrypt’s tracker. Even so, Decrypt said year-to-date ETF inflows remain under $1 billion after heavy outflows earlier in the year.
Macro data turned more supportive on Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 4.2%. After the release, CME FedWatch odds of an October rate hike fell to 14% from 70% earlier in the week, Decrypt reported. Softer labor data can ease pressure on the Fed to keep raising rates, which tends to favor risk assets such as Bitcoin.
On price, Bitcoin briefly tested $87,173 on Friday, near its September high of $87,354, before pulling back. It traded around $85,000 on Sunday morning, up 0.5% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko figures cited by Decrypt.
“Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside,” Algoz’s Stephen Wundke told Decrypt, adding that over the past decade Bitcoin has averaged an 18% gain in October. Still, traders on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent Dastan, put the odds at 93% that Bitcoin won’t set a new all-time high in 2026, Decrypt reported.
Next dated markers are close: September CPI on Oct. 14 and the Fed’s meeting on Oct. 28, per Decrypt.
This article was written with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
Sustained ETF inflows exceeding the current $14.3 million deficit would be necessary to shift market sentiment meaningfully, especially given the strong skepticism reflected in Myriad’s 93% odds against a new all-time Bitcoin high in 2026. However, if inflows continue steadily and broader investor interest grows, they could help overcome this pessimism and support further price gains, even if macroeconomic data remains mixed. This suggests that the market’s reaction will hinge not just on individual data points but on the persistence and scale of capital entering these ETFs over the coming weeks.
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