🔄 Mixed
⏱ 3 min read
Bitcoin has significantly outperformed both gold and silver since February, delivering 30% and 55% gains respectively versus these metals—even as all three assets have struggled to keep pace with U.S. equities amid a sharp macro policy reversal.
What Happened
Since February, bitcoin has rallied relative to gold and silver, which have endured a dramatic sell-off from their respective highs. Gold is down roughly 28% from its January 2025 apex of $5,600, currently trading below the $4,000 mark per ounce, while silver has fallen by more than 50%, dropping beneath $59 per ounce. The precious metals weakness comes amid a broader risk asset rotation, with market participants increasingly pricing in a tightening U.S. monetary policy stance. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair has been pivotal, with the market now expecting two 25 basis point rate hikes by March 2027—lifting the federal funds rate to a projected range of 4.00%–4.25% in response to renewed inflation concerns.
This policy shift has dramatically altered the prevailing macro narrative of the past two years: the ‘debasement trade’. That thesis, which has driven flows into hard assets like gold, silver, and bitcoin on fears of fiat currency depreciation, has been challenged by the central bank’s new hawkish tilt. Notably, bitcoin itself stagnated around $100,000 for much of 2025 even as metals soared, and has since corrected sharply, now sitting nearly 50% below its October record—and trading under its long-term 200 week moving average, a key technical indicator historically watched by market participants for trend direction.
Why It Matters
The broad-based sell-off in precious metals underlines how expectations of tighter Fed policy can quickly unwind consensus trades anchored in macro narratives. For many investors, the reversal underscores the structural sensitivity of gold, silver, and even bitcoin to shifts in interest rate expectations and real yields. In this cycle, equities—especially those linked to the semiconductor and memory sectors—have absorbed the bulk of incremental capital, outpacing traditionally defensive assets. Analysts now question whether digital assets like bitcoin, once lumped into the same inflation hedge basket as gold and silver, maintain their diversifying power as macro conditions change.
Historically, aggressive Fed tightening phases have realigned relative performance across risk assets and safe havens, sometimes exposing new correlations or weakening old ones. The decoupling between bitcoin and metals in recent months—paired with their joint underperformance versus equities—highlights an ecosystem in flux where narratives like ‘digital gold’ face real-time testing. The leadership in U.S. stocks suggests liquidity remains resilient for now, but the broader implications for portfolio construction are significant, particularly if monetary headwinds persist.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin leads precious metals performance since February, but all lag U.S. equities in 2026.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance has fueled metals’ steep sell-off and shifted market priorities.
- BTC’s price has suffered a 50% correction from October highs, breaking below trend lines.
- The validity of the ‘debasement trade’ as a macro framework is now being questioned by investors.
What’s Next
The market will be watching closely for further Fed commentary and inflation data that could shape the trajectory of risk assets and perceived safe havens. Analysts will focus on whether bitcoin can reclaim its 200 week moving average, seen by many as a key technical threshold. Meanwhile, any sustained momentum in U.S. equities—especially if led by technology or cyclical sectors—could further widen the performance gap, challenging allocation strategies anchored in traditional hedging narratives. Investors will be attuned to the cross-asset interplay between rates, liquidity, and store-of-value assets as the macro landscape evolves. The durability of Bitcoin’s outperformance versus gold and silver remains contingent on policy shifts and structural market flows.
🧠 HafidWatch Take
Bitcoin has outperformed gold and silver since February, gaining roughly 30% and 55% respectively, though all three assets lag U.S. equities in 2026. Precious metals have sold off sharply amid rate hike fears under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and Bitcoin itself is down 50% from its October peak, struggling below key moving averages.
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